2026 NFL Preview: NFC East
The Eagles won this division at 11-6 and were the only team in it to finish above .500. Dallas went 7-9-1, Washington went 5-12 a year after playing in the NFC Championship Game, and the Giants went 4-13 and fired their coach midseason. This was not a great division. This was one okay team and three fires.
But three of those four blew up their defense in the offseason, one of them hired John Harbaugh, and the reigning champ traded away its best receiver. Going 1 through 4, and yes, I have the Eagles second. Tyler, Jose — I'll see you in the group chat.
1 – Dallas Cowboys
2025: 7-9-1 (4th in NFC East)
Back in Week 8 I put the Cowboys at 16 and wrote that they were "all offense and no defense." I would like to revise that. They were all offense and anti-defense. Dallas finished dead last in the NFL in points allowed, 30th in total defense, and 32nd in defensive DVOA including 31st against the pass. They traded Micah Parsons days before the season started and then acted surprised when the whole thing fell apart. Matt Eberflus got fired, deservedly.
So here's why they're first. That offense is still the highest-ceiling unit in this division — eighth in offensive DVOA last year — and all eleven starters are back. Also from that Week 8: I said losing CeeDee Lamb for a few weeks might have been a blessing because it let Dak build chemistry with George Pickens, and that defenses would now have to account for both. That's exactly what happened. Pickens signed his franchise tag, says he isn't holding out, and Dallas has been transparent that there's no extension coming. A tad awkward, but he'll play.
Now the defense. Christian Parker, a first-time coordinator, is installing a new 3-4, and Dallas went shopping. They took Ohio State safety Caleb Downs 11th overall — their highest defensive pick since 2012 — and Downs has been getting rave reviews since he walked in the door, including from Dak. They took pass rusher Malachi Lawrence at 23. They signed Jalen Thompson, P.J. Locke and Cobie Durant, traded for Rashan Gary and Dee Winters, and get a full season of Quinnen Williams. Shavon Revel Jr. is back after playing seven games as a rookie coming off a college ACL tear.
Is it enough? They only had 35 sacks last year, tied for 22nd, and they lost Osa Odighizuwa to my 49ers, Solomon Thomas to Tennessee, plus Logan Wilson, Kenneth Murray, Jadeveon Clowney and Dante Fowler. That's an entire front seven walking out the door and a new scheme on top of it. The turnover here is genuinely staggering.
The one real hole on offense is left tackle, where Tyler Guyton — a former first-rounder who has been a disappointment — is battling Nate Thomas.
Also worth noting: this has been a quiet Cowboys offseason. No drama. The only squabbles were contract stuff with Pickens and kicker Brandon Aubrey, which by Dallas standards barely registers. Emmitt Smith publicly praised it. Dak says the focus is in the right place. A drama-free Cowboys camp is such an unnatural event that I'm choosing to read it as a good sign rather than a bad omen.
One more thing in their favor: last year's defense lost 49.1 adjusted games to injury, more than all but ten teams. Some of that 32nd-ranked finish was just bodies not being available.
Win total 9.5, +190 to +235, and they've closed about 65 points on Philly in the division market since odds opened — the biggest move of any team here. The market is coming around. I'm just getting there first, and I'm aware that picking the Cowboys is how people end up looking stupid in December.
2 – Philadelphia Eagles
2025: 11-6 (1st in NFC East, lost Wild Card)
I complained about this team more than any other last season, so let's do the highlight reel. Week 3: "the Eagles run on defense and Saquon," most boring undefeated team in the league. Week 7: "the Eagles offense is horrible. Absolutely, brutally horrible. You have a fullback at QB." Week 11: they didn't get a first down until the second quarter, and I noted that AJ Brown had told his fantasy managers to drop him.
I was right and it still won them the division. That's the most Eagles thing imaginable.
The numbers back up every word: 23rd in passing yards, held to 20 points or fewer in TEN games, and a 23-19 wild card loss at home to my 49ers to end it. Hurts threw a career-best 25 touchdowns but his rushing scores fell to eight, snapping a four-year run of double digits. And Saquon — who I spent half of October calling a ghost before he briefly woke up and immediately got hurt — never came close to the guy who carried the 2024 team. Kevin Patullo is out, Sean Mannion is in as offensive coordinator — Hurts' fourth in four years, which is insane. Jeff Stoutland, the offensive line guru who was the actual heartbeat of both Super Bowl teams, is gone too.
And AJ Brown finally got traded to New England for a 2028 first and a 2027 fifth. The drama is over. So is the guy who put up 1,000 yards in all four of his seasons there. DeVonta Smith is now unquestionably the top target, with Dontayvion Wicks arriving from Green Bay, Marquise Brown signed, first-rounder Makai Lemon — who I mentioned the Rams passed on — and second-round tight end Eli Stowers, the Mackey Award winner out of Vanderbilt who is 6-4 and can line up anywhere. Dallas Goedert is back for what's probably his last year.
The defense is why they're still second and not fourth. Vic Fangio's unit has allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL with the starters on the field, and they added Tariq Woolen and Jonathan Greenard. But Jalen Carter — the chronic spitter himself, who got ejected before the first snap of Week 1 last year — wants a massive extension and there's real trade chatter. If Carter goes, this whole ranking collapses. Jihaad Campbell also has to replace Nakobe Dean full time at linebacker.
They're the favorite at +115 to +140 going for a three-peat, they have the sixth-easiest schedule in football, and their unique opponents are Carolina, Chicago and Pittsburgh. They also went 8-4 in one-score games, and while that usually screams regression, they led by ten-plus in five of those eight before letting teams back in — so it's less lucky than it looks. Everything points to them winning this thing again. I just can't put a team with a brand new coordinator, no AJ Brown, no Stoutland and an unresolved Carter situation ahead of that Dallas offense. And I stand by what I said in Week 6: Jalen Hurts is not the next Patrick Mahomes. *cough* TylerIsStillAnIdiot *cough*
3 – New York Giants
2025: 4-13 (3rd in NFC East)
Third place for a four-win team, and I need about thirty seconds to explain.
New York hired John Harbaugh after his 18 years in Baltimore, which is the single biggest coaching upgrade any team in this division made. Think about that for a second — the guy who won a Super Bowl and made Baltimore a perennial contender for nearly two decades is now coaching the Giants. They traded Dexter Lawrence to Cincinnati for a first-round pick. They now have four first-rounders from the last two drafts on the roster: Abdul Carter, Jaxson Dart, linebacker Arvell Reese and offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa. Add Day 2 picks Malachi Fields at receiver and Colton Hood at corner, plus Andrew Thomas and Brian Burns as the veteran anchors. This is a real, coherent rebuild — the most aggressive offseason this franchise has had in years, and a genuine plan rather than the usual flailing.
And they weren't nothing last season, either. In Week 7 I wrote up the Eagles getting beaten 34-17 by these Giants, and the week before that they'd knocked off Philly on Thursday night. Whatever else was broken, they could hang with the division champ.
Jaxson Dart is the dude. He sat behind Russell Wilson, took over, dealt with injuries, watched Brian Daboll get fired and Mike Kafka finish as interim, and still put up 24 total touchdowns as a rookie. Now Matt Nagy runs the offense and it's Dart's team outright. His floor is just staying upright — he takes off running with a recklessness that got him hurt — and his ceiling is why people in New Jersey are excited for the first time in a while.
Here's the problem, and it's a big one: the injury list is already ugly. Rookie corner Thaddeus Dixon, Gunner Olszewski and defensive lineman Roy Robertson-Harris ALL tore Achilles tendons during OTAs. Three guys. In OTAs. Robertson-Harris hurts most because they'd just traded Lawrence. Abdul Carter sprained an ankle in June. Malik Nabers is coming back from a knee, Darius Slayton had core muscle surgery, and Cam Skattebo is working back from an ankle but insists he'll be ready for Week 1. And Harbaugh is famous for running hard practices.
They're the longest price in the division at +575 to +600, which is exactly what a 4-13 record buys you. But interestingly, they're drawing 37% of the division betting handle at DraftKings on only 14% of the tickets — meaning the bigger money is on New York. Somebody sharp likes this team. And if Nabers is right and Skattebo is right and Dart takes the second-year jump, there's a version of this where they're annoying by November. I'm not going all the way there, but third feels right, and I'd rather be early on this one than late.
4 – Washington Commanders
2025: 5-12 (2nd in NFC East)
This one hurts, because I was so high on them early. Week 2 I had Washington fifth in the entire league after they beat the Giants, gushing about Deebo Samuel turning back the clock and Javon Kinlaw and Daron Payne holding New York to 38 rushing yards. By Week 3 I'd dropped them eight spots, writing that they got dominated by Green Bay and that Jayden Daniels was pressured on 46% of his dropbacks. Then in Week 6 he came back, they beat the Chargers, and I was writing happily about Luke McCaffrey and the evolution of Jacory "Bill" Croskey-Merritt.
Then it all fell apart. Washington went from NFC Championship darlings to 5-12. Daniels missed ten games with a sprained knee, a strained hamstring and a dislocated left elbow, and the team went 2-5 in the games he actually played. The defense finished dead last in the NFL in yards allowed. That's a full-scale collapse on both sides.
Adam Peters responded by spending. They took Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles seventh overall — a genuine athletic freak who's already a popular Defensive Rookie of the Year pick — and gave Odafe Oweh a four-year, $100 million deal to rush the passer. Then they added Amik Robertson, Nick Cross, K'Lavon Chaisson, Leo Chenal and Tim Settle. Daronte Jones takes over as coordinator. Buying a defense in free agency doesn't always work, but you can't say they didn't try.
The part that worries me is the offense. Kliff Kingsbury is out and David Blough — Daniels' assistant QB coach the last two years — is now the coordinator, which means more snaps under center and a new system Daniels has said he's still learning. And the weapons around him barely changed. Terry McLaurin is coming off ankle, quad and pelvic injuries plus last year's contract mess. Behind him: Dyami Brown, Van Jefferson, Treylon Burks and McCaffrey, and not one of those four cleared 30 catches or 400 yards last season. Not one. Rookie Antonio Williams is going to have to contribute immediately. Chigoziem Okonkwo at tight end is a real add after three straight 50-catch years in Tennessee, and Rachaad White joins Croskey-Merritt in the backfield.
Croskey-Merritt did put up 805 yards as a rookie, which is impressive for a guy I was calling a third-stringer in October, though he was wildly inconsistent. And in case Daniels didn't have enough on his plate, he's also in season three of Netflix's Quarterback, so the cameras will be there for all of it.
Win total 7.5, +460 to +525. Daniels is a legitimate franchise quarterback and this defense should be much better. But he has to actually play seventeen games, and Blough calling plays for the first time with that receiver room is a lot to ask. Fourth in a division this shallow is a rough place to be.