2026 NFL Preview: AFC East
For the first time since 2019, somebody other than Buffalo won this division — and it was the Patriots, who went 14-3, took the No. 2 seed and made it all the way to Super Bowl LX before Seattle handled them 29-13. The Bills went 12-5 and lost in overtime in Denver. And then there's the bottom of this division, which is less a football rivalry than a race to the 2027 draft.
Both of the good teams also changed something big. Buffalo has a new head coach. New England has A.J. Brown.
1 – Buffalo Bills
2025: 12-5 (2nd in AFC East)
Alex, this one's for you. Your guy is still your guy.
Let me run back my own emotional season with this team, because it was a lot. Week 2, after that 41-40 instant classic against Baltimore, I gave it Game of the Year and wrote that with Allen at quarterback you're never out of it. Week 7, after they lost to Atlanta, I said Josh Palmer can't be a number one receiver. Week 8 I called for DEFCON 1 if they lost the Carolina get-right game. Week 9 they won 40-9 and I got to say "told ya." Week 10 they beat Kansas City and I wrote, and I quote, "maybe I was wrong... who needs a big name WR?" Week 11 they lost by 17 to Miami and I asked Alex to give his best friend, Josh Allen a call.
Then they went 12-5, won a playoff game, and lost 33-30 in overtime in Denver in the divisional round. Same as always.
So Sean McDermott is out after overseeing the best sustained run this franchise has had since Marv Levy, and 36-year-old Joe Brady gets promoted from offensive coordinator. The mandate is simple yet brutal: McDermott got them close every year and never got them over the hump so…. get them over the hump. Jim Leonhard takes over the defense.
Buffalo returns most of its starters, and the two additions both address things I complained about all season. DJ Moore comes over from Chicago and reunites with Brady, his old Panthers coordinator — he's coming off a career-worst year with Caleb Williams but he's a legitimate WR1, which this team hasn't had since Diggs left. (And yes, Diggs got his revenge game against them last year, 146 yards in New England.) Moore's other job is dragging Keon Coleman along, and Coleman needs it — Terry Pegula publicly called him out in January and Coleman has since described this as a make-or-break year for himself.
The other add is Bradley Chubb, who had 8.5 sacks in Miami and played a full season for the first time since his rookie year. He's needed badly. Gregory Rousseau led this team with SEVEN sacks last season, and Joey Bosa looks closer to retiring than playing. Second-rounder T.J. Parker joins the rotation. That front seven couldn't get to Trevor Lawrence or Bo Nix in January, and that's the reason the season ended.
They lost David Edwards and Taron Johnson to free agency, and Mitch Trubisky left again to reunite with Daboll in Tennessee.
They're the favorite at -130 to -155, and every year since 2008 either they or New England have won this divison. James Cook is still untackleable — I compared him to a Kit Kat bar last September and I stand by it — and Allen is still Allen. But Buffalo opens against Houston, Detroit and the Chargers, which is a rough three weeks for a first-time head coach, and under McDermott this team always started hot. If Brady drops two of those first three, Bills Mafia goes straight to DEFCON 1 and I'll be right there with them.
2 – New England Patriots
2025: 14-3 (1st in AFC East, lost Super Bowl LX)
I spent the back half of last season doing nothing but glazing Drake Maye, so let me just quote myself. Week 7: "Drake Maye almost had a perfect game." Week 8: "he only had 2 incompletions... Maye looks like the best and most polished" from that quarterback draft class. Week 9, after Myles Garrett sacked him six times and he still threw for 282 with three touchdowns: "The Drake Maye glaze is real but so well deserved." Week 10: "I personally cannot get enough of Maye. This guy is good. Plain and simple."
He finished as the MVP runner-up and took them to the Super Bowl. Point, James.
Now he gets A.J. Brown. New England finally closed the trade in June after months of it being the worst-kept secret in football, and Brown said joining his childhood team was about as close to heaven as it gets. He immediately started building chemistry with Maye at minicamp. Behind him is Romeo Doubs, who came over from Green Bay and was supposed to be the big offseason add before Brown landed, plus Mack Hollins, and DeMario Douglas. Watch second-year receiver Kyle Williams, who only caught 10 passes as a rookie but scored three times. And TreVeyon Henderson, who I wrote up in Week 11 after he finally broke out for 147 and two scores while hitting 22 MPH, should have a much bigger role.
Here's my concern, and it's the same one I flagged in Week 10: the offensive line. Maye was sacked 12 times in a two-week stretch last season, including six by Garrett. He survived because he's Drake Maye. Adding Brown doesn't fix pass protection.
Two unresolved situations. Christian Gonzalez is coming off his first Pro Bowl and wants a top-of-market extension north of $30 million a year. He skipped voluntary work, showed up for minicamp, and says he wants to stay long term. And second-round pick Gabe Jacas — a guy they traded up for — still hasn't practiced or signed after an offseason medical procedure the team won't detail. Their edge depth needs him.
They're +125 to +145, and they open in Seattle in a Super Bowl rematch. Also worth knowing: they had a historically easy schedule last year and now get a first-place slate. And Buffalo was favored by 2.5 IN Foxborough in Week 15 last season and won that game outright — the market never fully bought this team even while they were winning 14. Fourteen wins is not repeating. Second place with a real shot at first is the honest read.
3 – New York Jets
2025: 3-14 (4th in AFC East)
I have one stat for you and it explains everything about last season. The New York Jets defense recorded ZERO interceptions. Not one. In seventeen games. I've been staring at that for ten minutes and I still don't believe it. They also finished 31st in scoring defense and went 0-6 in division games. The one thing they could do was run — back in Week 2 I wrote about them putting up 182 yards and three touchdowns on the ground against Pittsburgh in a game they still lost — and that's about where the highlight reel ends.
Darren Mougey responded by tearing the whole thing down and starting over. New York is projected to have as many as eight new defensive starters. They brought back Demario Davis, the guy they originally drafted, and added Jersey native Minkah Fitzpatrick from Miami, plus T'Vondre Sweat, David Onyemata, Joseph Ossai and Nahshon Wright — who, and I love this, led the entire NFL with eight takeaways in Chicago last year. From zero interceptions to signing the league's takeaway leader. Subtle.
Then they took edge rusher David Bailey second overall and national champ corner D'Angelo Ponds. Bailey is tied for the shortest Defensive Rookie of the Year odds at +500. Brian Duker is a first-time coordinator, which is the risk, but Davis, Fitzpatrick and Harrison Phillips give this group the veteran spine Aaron Glenn's first defense completely lacked.
On offense, Geno Smith comes back to the team that drafted him in 2013, now 35 years old, after leading the league in interceptions in Las Vegas last season. That's the bridge-quarterback move, and it's fine — the supporting cast is the best the Jets have had in years. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are back, Adonai Mitchell gets a full season, and rookies Kenyon Sadiq at tight end and Omar Cooper Jr. at receiver both have Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. Four of five offensive line starters return. Frank Reich takes over as coordinator, which is a real veteran upgrade over Tanner Engstrand.
One thing to monitor: Smith is reportedly under investigation for battery in Florida and hasn't commented. That's unresolved and it's an availability question until it isn't.
The drought numbers are genuinely bleak — 15 years without a playoff game, 23 seasons without a division title, 57 without a Super Bowl. Breece Hall watched the Knicks finally break through this summer and said the whole locker room has "positive jealousy" about it.
They're +1800 to +3000 and nobody's picking them for anything, and the divisional history is grim — 6-24 straight up against AFC East opponents since 2021. But this is two straight teams in this preview building the right way, and the Jets have the better roster of the two. Third place, and it's not particularly close.
4 – Miami Dolphins
2025: 7-10 (3rd in AFC East)
This is the worst team I've ever seen assembled and I don't think it's close.
I need you to look at what Miami let walk out the door in one offseason. Tua Tagovailoa: gone to Atlanta, and Miami is eating an NFL-RECORD $99.2 million in dead cap to make it happen. Tyreek Hill: released. Jaylen Waddle: traded to Denver. Minkah Fitzpatrick: traded to the Jets. Bradley Chubb: released, now in Buffalo. Darren Waller, Julian Hill, Cole Strange, Larry Borom, James Daniels: all gone. Mike McDaniel is calling plays for the Chargers now.
They didn't rebuild this roster. They evacuated it. And two of their best defensive players went to teams they play twice a year, which is such funny way to run a franchise.
So who's left? Malik Willis, who got a three-year, $67.5 million deal on the strength of two nice spot starts in Green Bay — both losses — and who Tennessee gave up on after three career starts. De'Von Achane, who is legitimately good and about to be tackled by eleven guys every snap. And a receiver room that NFL.com accurately described as a who's who of "who's that?": Malik Washington, Tutu Atwell, Jalen Tolbert, Terrace Marshall Jr., Jalen Reagor. Not a WR1 in sight. Quinn Ewers waits behind Willis, and the 2027 quarterback class is sitting right there, which tells you everything about the actual plan.
Jeff Hafley is a first-time head coach. Jon-Eric Sullivan is a first-time GM. Both came over from Green Bay, they brought a 13-player draft class with them, and the defense might be the worst unit in the entire league. I don't even think that's a criticism of them — it's the assignment. You don't eat $99.2 million in dead money to get worse by accident.
Now add the schedule. Miami draws the AFC West and NFC North, plays only three games all year against teams with win totals of 5.5 or lower, and their unique opponents are the 49ers, Bengals and Colts — 28.5 wins combined. Depending on the metric, they have either the second-hardest schedule in football or something close to it. They also went 4-3 in one-score games last year, so even their 7-10 was flattering. Four of their first six are on the road with the bye in Week 6, which conveniently robs them of the September heat advantage that's been worth a game a year down there forever.
DraftKings has their win total at 3.5, tied for the lowest in the NFL, and they're +3000 to +4000 to win a division they have no business being in. Not one of those numbers is an accident. This roster was assembled by people who want a top-three pick, and everything about how it was built says so out loud.
I'll be watching Achane and nothing else. Take the under and don't overthink it.