2026 NFL Preview: AFC South
The Jaguars went from 4-13 to 13-4 and won this division. The Texans went 12-5 with maybe the best defense in football and still finished second. The Colts started 8-2, lost their last seven, and finished 8-9. The Titans went 3-14 for the second straight year and fired their head coach in the middle of the season.
This division swung harder than any other in football last season, and three of these four teams are legitimately good.
1 – Houston Texans
2025: 12-5 (2nd in AFC South)
Twelve wins, a top-tier defense, and I still have questions. Houston has now won ten-plus games in all three of C.J. Stroud's seasons and has exactly one thing standing between them and a Super Bowl, and it's the same thing every year.
That defense is the best unit in this preview and possibly in the league. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter are both in their primes off the edge. The back end is Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Jalen Pitre and Calen Bullock, which is genuinely lockdown. Azeez Al-Shaair patrols the middle. They added Reed Blankenship at safety to fix the one spot they'd been shuffling through, and second-rounder Kayden McDonald could start right away next to Sheldon Rankins. If McDonald hits, this defense has zero weaknesses. Zero.
DeMeco Ryans is the guy I keep waiting on. He's been a good head coach for three years and this is the season where he either becomes a great one or the ceiling is just what it is.
Now the part that's been killing them. Houston's offensive line got bowled over all year, and C.J. Stroud has gotten worse in each of the two seasons since that sensational rookie year. It bottomed out in the playoff loss to New England: four interceptions and a 42.6% completion rate. Four picks. In a playoff game.
The maddening thing is that Stroud trusted his protection so little that he'd rush throws even when he had time. That's not a mechanical problem, that's a confidence problem, and you can't draft your way out of it. So they overhauled the line again — re-upped Ed Ingram, drafted center/guard Keylan Rutledge in the first round, signed Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith, and Aireontae Ersery gets year two at left tackle. On paper it's much better. They said that last year too.
David Montgomery is the underrated addition. Monty almost never gets stuffed for a loss, which fixes the exact problem Houston had on the ground last year and keeps them out of second-and-12. The other guy to watch is Tank Dell, who has been out since late 2024 with a severe knee injury. Stroud's numbers with and without Dell are dramatically different.
They're the favorite at +110 to +120 after opening at +160, so the market has been moving toward them all summer. They've won this division in eight of the last fifteen seasons, they have one of the seven easiest schedules in football, and Stroud has won double-digit games in every season he's been the quarterback. They open at home against Buffalo.
Best defense, easiest path, most talent. If Stroud is even 2023 Stroud again, this is a Super Bowl team. That's the whole bet and I'm making it.
2 – Indianapolis Colts
2025: 8-9 (3rd in AFC South)
Matty, before you say anything — I know. I KNOW.
Let me read back my own greatest hits. Week 3: "damnnnn they're fun to watch (Sorry Matty)." Week 6: "another week, another step up the rankings for the Colts (again, sorry Matty)." Week 8: "The league's first and only 6-win team," leading the NFL at 32.4 points a game, "I know Matt is surprised." Week 9, with them at 7-1 and a +116 point differential: "I stand by my thought that the Colts are the most consistent team in the NFL." Week 10, after the Steelers loss: "Fear not Matty, this is just a one game thing." Week 11: "This is still a great team, Matty."
They lost their last seven games and finished 8-9. Matty, you were right. It will not happen again.
Here's what actually happened: Daniel Jones — or Daniel (Indiana) Jones, or as Eric has been calling him since roughly 2021, the fantasy GOAT — got hurt, and the whole thing collapsed. The offense that was scoring 32 a game had no answer without him, and defenses could sell out to stop Jonathan Taylor, which they did. Everything I liked about this team was real and it was all contingent on one guy. Eric, you were right about him and Matty was right about them. I was the only one wrong.
So the entire 2026 season is Daniel Jones' recovery. He was held out of team drills in the spring and is expected to be full go at some point in camp. The worry is real — Achilles recoveries are rough, and Jones relies on his mobility more than most. If he can't push off that leg, the passes go limp and this offense withers again. Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard are competing to back him up, assuming Richardson's trade request doesn't get granted first.
The health list doesn't stop there. DeForest Buckner had neck surgery and was noncommittal about Week 1 when asked, which is a red flag — guys usually overpromise in July. There's no replacement for him. Sauce Gardner missed time with a calf. Charvarius Ward decided against retiring after concussion issues last season.
Jonathan Taylor is in the last year of his deal and wants to stay, and the tone is friendly so far. He's earned it. In Week 11 he went for 286 total yards and three touchdowns while Jones was getting sacked seven times. He may also be waiting on Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs to reset the running back market before he makes his move, which would be smart business.
And I still want more Cam Bynum picks, purely for the celebrations. That was a Week 2 request and a Week 7 request and I'm making it again.
They're +380 to +400, third in the market, with a top-five easiest schedule. That extension I said was "in the works" back in Week 9 did get done — Jones and Alec Pierce both got long-term deals. I'm putting them second because a healthy Jones plus that offense was the best thing in football for two months. Sorry, Matty. Again.
3 – Jacksonville Jaguars
2025: 13-4 (1st in AFC South, lost Wild Card)
Week 6 I wrote: "We as a collective (mostly Tradon) owe the Jaguars an apology. They are much much better than we ever gave them credit for. They are collecting wins like Thanos collected stones." Week 7, after they lost to Seattle: "Huge thank you to the Jags for making me look so bad."
Then they finished on an 8-0 run, won 13 games, took the division, and lost to Buffalo in the wild card round on a last-second field goal. Liam Coen in year one. Tradon, we both owe them a bigger apology than I thought.
So why third? Because they arguably got worse this offseason, and three teams here are genuinely good.
Travis Etienne left for New Orleans and took 260 carries with him. Bhayshul Tuten has impressed all offseason and is expected to get a big role, but he had 83 carries as a rookie and free-agent addition Chris Rodriguez Jr. missed the spring after foot surgery. Nobody knows how Coen splits that yet.
Devin Lloyd left for Carolina and they didn't replace him — not in free agency, not early in the draft. Lloyd was second-team All-Pro under Anthony Campanile last season. Now it's 2023 fourth-rounder Ventrell Miller next to Foye Oluokun, with an undrafted guy and a seventh-rounder pushing him. That's a real hole in the middle of a defense that already didn't get consistent pressure from the front four — a problem I flagged back in Week 7 when they were 27th in sacks.
The Travis Hunter situation is the fun one. The Jags reportedly plan to use him as a primary corner and part-time receiver, and Hunter did not seem thrilled about it publicly. How much he practices, and where, tells you everything. Brian Thomas Jr. has gotten glowing reviews on his chemistry with Trevor Lawrence after a disappointing second year, Parker Washington — who I openly admitted I'd never heard of in Week 10 — closed last season strong, and Jakobi Meyers is still a pro. If BTJ is back, they don't need Hunter on offense as much. And Lawrence taking another leap would put him in the top tier of AFC quarterbacks, assuming that hair still isn't getting in his eyes.
The defense that led the league in takeaways early last year is the identity here, and Campanile has proven he can scheme it. Losing Lloyd from the middle of it is the thing that worries me most.
They're +210 to +245 and one model I found actually projects them for the most wins in the division at 9.9. The schedule is the catch: their UK commitments mean just three home games in the first eleven weeks, and they went 7-1 at home last year.
Third in a division where I'd take any of the top three.
4 – Tennessee Titans
2025: 3-14 (4th in AFC South)
Three and fourteen, two years running, and they fired their head coach midseason — which, for the record, is a wild thing to do to the first overall pick before his rookie year is even finished.
But this is the most interesting last-place team I've written up, and I'd bet on them over Miami or Arizona without blinking.
Start with the coaching. Robert Saleh takes over, which is a genuine defensive upgrade — he left my 49ers to do it, and I'm still a little sad. Then he brought in Brian Daboll to run the offense, and Daboll's track record with young quarterbacks is the actual selling point: Josh Allen, Daniel Jones and Jaxson Dart all got better under him. Tennessee didn't just get a coach, they got a quarterback developer.
Which matters because everything here is Cam Ward. He was 44th out of 47 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE as a rookie, which sounds damning until you remember what was around him. When he found a groove he showed a laser arm and real deep touch. What he needs is the boring stuff: short and intermediate accuracy, and better processing against man coverage, where he genuinely struggled.
They rebuilt around him too. Wan'Dale Robinson comes over from the Giants off a 1,014-yard season and already knows Daboll's system, which makes him a perfect third-down security blanket. Then they took Ohio State's Carnell Tate fourth overall for a vertical threat. Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike both flashed as rookies. Calvin Ridley is the question mark — 17 catches for 303 yards and no touchdowns in seven games, with the fifth-worst drop rate in the NFL, and they kept him anyway.
The defense was woeful and got completely revamped. John Franklin-Myers next to Jeffery Simmons is a great pairing. Jermaine Johnson II had his best years under Saleh. First-rounder Keldric Faulk and second-round linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. should play early. The secondary was horrendous, so they signed Cordale Flott, Alontae Taylor and Joshua Williams — all guys with flashes and all guys who were available for a reason.
Here's the sneaky case: they went 0-10 against playoff teams and 2-5 in one-score games, ranked 31st in penalties and 28th in red zone touchdown rate allowed. Those are exactly the numbers that swing year to year. They're +800 to +850 with a fourth-place schedule, and at least one analyst is picking them outright to win this division. That's aggressive. But it's not stupid.
One betting note: Tennessee went 11-6 to the over last season because that defense couldn't stop anybody. If Saleh fixes even half of it, the totals angle flips completely. I'd be looking at unders in Nashville early.