Stanley Cup Playoffs: Round 1
The Previews are back, and we are back in April. Look, I am going to be honest with you folks — the regular season wore me out this year. It was a grind. But we made it, and now we get the best two months in sports. Every single year without fail, the NHL playoffs deliver something you cannot get anywhere else, and this year's bracket is absolutely loaded with storylines. Buffalo ending a 14-year drought. The 2021 Stanley Cup Final rematch in the first round. The Battle of Pennsylvania back on ice. Colorado looking like a machine that cannot be stopped. And Vegas firing their coach with eight games left and somehow winning the division. The NHL is unhinged and I mean that as the highest possible compliment. Please, please enjoy this hockey.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Buffalo Sabres (1st Atlantic Division) vs. Boston Bruins (1st East Wildcard)
The Buffalo Sabres are back in the playoffs. Fourteen years. NHL record. Over. Done. Lindy Ruff has this team playing with real belief and KeyBank Center is going to be the loudest building in North America when that puck drops. What a moment for that city. They didn't sneak in either — they won the Atlantic Division with 109 points and this roster is truly deep. Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, a real supporting cast. The Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson pairing had a plus-18 goal differential at even strength and ranked 9th in goals scored percentage among all pairings in the league per MoneyPuck — that's a legit weapon from the back end. The concern is real though: Alex Lyon is hurt going into this, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has never done this before, and Buffalo ranked 16th in 5v5 xG% all season. They outscored what they deserved. Playoff hockey has a funny way of correcting that…
Ah the Bruins…The Bruins are back because Jeremy Swayman decided to have a Vezina-caliber season. He bounced back from a rough 2024-25 to post a 2.71 GAA and .908 SV% and was single-handedly keeping Boston in games all season. David Pastrnak had his 100-point year, Charlie McAvoy had a career season from the blue line. Outside of those two and Swayman, though, the depth thins out fast. Their PK ranked 24th in the league. That's a rough number to carry into a playoff series against a team with Buffalo's offensive depth.
Boston won three of four against the Sabres this regular season. Swayman will steal a game or two — that's quite literally the Bruins' only real path in this series. You know how much I hate teams like the Boston Bruins. I love proving I am right about them. Talent and team play wins at the end of the day, and this is Buffalo's moment. The city has waited 14 years for this. The roster is built for it. Let them cook.
Buffalo in 5.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd Atlantic Division) vs Montreal Canadiens (3rd Atlantic Division)
The 2021 Stanley Cup Final is happening in Round 1 of the 2026 playoffs. You cannot make this type of stuff up. Both teams finished 106 points, Tampa Bay gets home ice on the regulation wins tiebreaker. The Lightning are on their ninth straight playoff appearance — a franchise record tied with Colorado for the longest active streak in the league — and this team looks dangerous again. Nikita Kucherov had 130 points, including a league-leading 86 assists, and is most certainly one of, if not the most dangerous players in hockey with a puck on his stick this season. If he doesn’t win the Hart…there might be a riot. Andrei Vasilevskiy is back to his elite self at .912 SV% with 15.53 goals saved above expected at 5v5. Tampa ranked 5th in 5v5 xGF per 60 on the season. This is a real, experienced, dangerous hockey team.
Montreal has been one of the most exciting teams in hockey this year and I won't pretend otherwise. Cole Caufield hit 51 goals — first Hab to do that since Stephane Richer in 1989-90 — and Nick Suzuki became just the fifth player in franchise history to crack 100 points. The pipeline is real and Martin St. Louis gets to face his old team in Tampa for the first time in the playoffs, which is a great storyline. The issue is between the pipes. Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler have a combined six career NHL playoff games. Six. Against Vasilevskiy who has 120.
Oddly enough, Vasy went 0-2 against Montreal this season. It was Jonas Johansson who won both Tampa games. Make of that what you will. The Habs will make this fun and Caufield is capable of taking over any game on any given night. But I keep coming back to the experience gap between those pipes and nine straight postseasons of Tampa Bay knowing exactly how to win in the spring.
Tampa Bay in 5.
Carolina Hurricanes (1st Metropolitan Division) vs. Ottawa Senators (2nd East Wildcard)
The Carolina Hurricanes are in the playoffs for the eighth straight year under Rod Brind'Amour. Eighth. That is remarkable sustained excellence. They finished with 113 points and the Eastern Conference's best record, Nikolaj Ehlers came over and gave this offense a whole new dimension with a career-high 71 points, and Aho, Svechnikov, Jarvis round out one of the deeper top fours in the East. Their 5v5 xGF% is second in the entire NHL at 55.89% — only Colorado is better at controlling hockey games. Their power play is fourth in the league at 24.9%. On paper, this is the best Hurricanes team of the Brind'Amour era. And yet somehow, heading into Game 1, they still haven't named a starting goalie. Andersen had a career-worst season. Bussi is a first-year NHL goalie who faded after the Olympics. Kochetkov hasn't played since December. This is a bad situation at the most important position in hockey for the East's top seed because if you don’t know who you can rely on when it matters most you are in trouble. I think they have the scoring prowess early, but it’s the Canes, they always have just enough, until they don’t.
Ottawa has quietly been one of the best stories in the league this year. They went 26-12-6 after January 1 — third most points in that stretch in the entire NHL. Stutzle, Batherson, Tkachuk all had strong seasons, Jake Sanderson is becoming one of the best young defensemen in the game. Here's the wild stat: Ottawa ranks third in 5v5 xGF% in the whole NHL at 54.39%. They and Carolina are the two best possession teams in the Eastern Conference and they are playing each other in Round 1. The weakness is the penalty kill at 75.7%, which is 29th in the league. They are about to face the fourth-best power play in hockey. That one matchup could decide the whole series.
Brady Tkachuk literally said on his podcast that the Senators model their game after the Hurricanes. These teams are mirror images of each other. The difference is Brind'Amour is one of the great playoff coaches of his generation and Carolina's offensive upside is a level above. Ullmark has to steal this thing for Ottawa to pull it off. If he plays like his Vezina year, this gets very interesting — but that's a lot to ask of a guy who posted the worst SV% of his career this season. I trust Brind'Amour to figure out the goaltending situation.
Carolina in 6.
Pittsburgh Penguins (2nd Metropolitan Division) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (3rd Metropolitan Division)
I have been waiting for this matchup since the bracket was set. The Battle of Pennsylvania is back for the eighth time in playoff history and it is exactly the storyline this sport deserves right now. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are in the playoffs together for the 16th time. Crosby enters with 201 career playoff points, tied with Jagr for fifth all-time among active players. This team was written off before the season started — the talk was about tanking and rebuilding — and here they are. Pittsburgh scored 290 goals this year, most in the Crosby era, and ranked third in the league in goals per game. The concern, same as it's been for years in Pittsburgh, is the goaltending. Silovs had a 3.07 GAA and .888 SV%, Skinner wasn't much better, and the Penguins ranked 22nd in goals against per game. If you're a Pens fan, that's the number keeping you up at night.
Philadelphia was not supposed to be here. Rick Tocchet took the job from Vancouver, had to navigate a complicated relationship with Matvei Michkov all season — who then came on like a freight train post-Olympics with 22 points in 26 games — and somehow guided this group into the playoffs. Rookie Porter Martone arrived from Michigan State in March and the Flyers scored 3.67 goals per game with him in the lineup. Trevor Zegras had a real bounce-back year. This team went 18-7-1 after the Olympics. Dan Vladar has been quietly solid in net all season. The Flyers might actually have the goaltending edge in this series, which nobody saw coming.
This series is going to be vicious folks. You’ve heard the stories. Generations of hatred packed into a best-of-seven. Old guard vs. young guns. I think Crosby's will to win carries Pittsburgh, because he is still the best player in this series and everyone in that building knows what's at stake for him and Malkin. But Michkov, Martone, and Zegras could absolutely flip this if they show up and Vladar outplays the Pittsburgh tandem. Watch the special teams — Philly is disciplined enough to keep it at even strength where they have a real shot.
Pittsburgh in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Colorado Avalanche (1st Central Division) vs. Los Angeles Kings (2nd West Wildcard)
The Colorado Avalanche won the Presidents' Trophy with 121 points and are the most complete team in hockey. Nathan MacKinnon won the goal-scoring title with 53, Cale Makar is the best defenseman alive, Gabriel Landeskog is back healthy, and this roster has championship urgency written all over it. Their 5v5 xGF% leads the entire NHL and it isn't particularly close. They have been in the playoffs nine straight years. They are the runaway favorite to come out of the West.
The LA Kings finished the season with a -22 goal differential and just 22 regulation wins — tied with Chicago for 30th in the NHL. Their late-season push got them into the dance, but eight months of struggles don't disappear because of a hot April. Colorado won all three regular season meetings by an aggregate of 13-5. Anze Kopitar plays his final NHL games in this series and he is one of the all-time great Kings, the franchise's all-time points leader, a true legend of the game. He deserves a better farewell than this matchup but sometimes the bracket is what it is.
I actually don’t mind typing this because there is no other way to say it: this is not a series. My wife’s Sharks had more wins and were much more fun to watch the entire series. Salty? Sure but facts are facts. Colorado is on a different planet right now. Celebrate Kopitar, enjoy his final games, and then prepare to watch the Avalanche dismantle whoever comes next.
Colorado in 4.
Dallas Stars (2nd Central Division) vs Minnesota Wild (3rd Central Division)
This is the best first-round series in the West and I will die on that hill. Two legitimate top-five teams in the NHL forced into a Round 1 matchup because the divisional format decided to ruin a potential Conference Finals for us. Dallas finished 50-20 for 112 points. Mikko Rantanen is leading the offensive charge and Jake Oettinger is one of the best goalies in the league when he's locked in. Three straight Conference Finals appearances under Peter DeBoer has built something in that locker room. They know how to win when it matters.
Minnesota finished 46-24 for 104 points and Quinn Hughes coming over in the offseason has completely changed the dynamic of their back end. Kirill Kaprizov is healthy and motivated and this Wild team is legitimately scary. Their 5v5 xGF% puts them right there with the elite teams in the West. They are not going to be intimidated by Dallas's pedigree.
I go back and forth on this every day and I nearly had to flip a coin. Both teams deserve to advance. Dallas's three straight Conference Finals appearances builds a certain kind of knowing — when to be desperate, when to be patient — that Minnesota just hasn't earned yet. That experience edge, plus Oettinger getting hot, is enough to push me toward the Stars. But honestly, whoever wins this series is going to be a handful for Colorado or anyone else. Someone needs to fix this format.
Dallas in 6.
Vegas Golden Knights (1st Pacific Division) vs Utah Mammoth (1st West Wildcard)
The Vegas Golden Knights fired Bruce Cassidy with eight games left in the regular season and replaced him with John Tortorella. They then went 7-0-1. Vegas led the NHL in goals against average in that span at 1.88. Carter Hart posted a .930 SV% in April. That is the most Golden Knights thing that has ever happened and I say that with genuine admiration. Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner are one of the most dangerous top duos in the West and this team has playoff DNA baked in after four straight postseasons.
The Utah Mammoth are in the playoffs in their second year of existence. Just the second expansion team in the modern era to do that, alongside — you guessed it — the Golden Knights. This team earned it with six players scoring 20 or more goals and a defensive structure that quietly ranked top-10 in chances against all season. Clayton Keller drives the bus. This is not a fluke roster.
I believe in the Mammoth. I have all year. This team is deep enough to wear Vegas down if the series gets long and their depth can match what the Knights throw at them after the first two lines. But Tortorella's effect on that team over eight games, Hart's April goaltending, and Eichel being Eichel is a lot to bet against. This is going to be one of the best series of the first round. I am taking the underdog because who wants Vegas to win anything ever again?
Utah in 7
Edmonton Oilers (2nd Pacific Division) vs. Anaheim Ducks (3rd Pacific Division)
The Edmonton Oilers nearly didn't make it here and that is a sentence I cannot believe I am typing. Draisaitl missed significant time. Hyman was out for 58 games. There were legitimate questions about whether this roster had enough to qualify. Then Connor McDavid won his sixth Art Ross Trophy with 134 points and reminded everyone that he is simply the best hockey player on the planet. GM Stan Bowman acquired Connor Ingram at the deadline and he has stabilized the goaltending situation in a way that this team has desperately needed for two years running. When McDavid and Draisaitl are both healthy, I do not know what lineup in the Western Conference can match that top end talent. History says Edmonton finds a way to make this interesting regardless.
The Anaheim Ducks are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2018 and this young group has earned every bit of the excitement surrounding them. Leo Carlsson is a real two-way center, Cutter Gauthier and Beckett Sennecke are dangerous, and Joel Quenneville has done incredibly good work in his return to the NHL bench. He made history and has removed this team’s losing culture and mentality out. This is a franchise with a real future. They're just not ready to knock off McDavid and Draisaitl in a seven-game series. Not yet.
I am watching Connor McDavid skate through the neutral zone at full speed and I simply cannot pick against it. If Ingram is solid in net, Edmonton's top end talent wins this series. The Ducks' time is coming. Today is not that day.
Edmonton in 5.