2026 NFL Preview: NFC North
Last season the NFC North was the only division in football where all four teams finished above .500, and the whole thing was decided by two and a half games. The Bears went last-to-first. The Lions went first-to-last. The Packers finished 9-7-1 and tied a game 40-40, which is insane to think about. The Vikings won nine games with a quarterback situation that would make you question life itself.
Then all four of them spent the offseason fixing the exact thing that broke them.
1 – Detroit Lions
2025: 9-8 (4th in NFC North)
I'm putting the last-place team first, but so is Vegas and the boys, so at least I have company.
Here's what actually happened to Detroit last season. They lost Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn in the same offseason, and in Week 2 I wrote that losing both coordinators at once really takes a toll. Then they lost more games in 2025 than they had in the previous two seasons combined. But, (and this is the part everyone skips) they still scored 481 points, the most in the division. The offense didn't disappear. The offensive line did.
That unit went from asset to liability overnight. Frank Ragnow retired late in the offseason, Graham Glasgow got shoved back to center, and Jared Goff spent the year running for his life. Detroit attacked it: Penei Sewell moved to left tackle, rookie Blake Miller drafted to play right tackle, Cade Mays signed at center. The real question is the guards. Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge were both inconsistent last year and if they don't take a step, this whole plan falls apart again.
Jahmyr Gibbs is now THE guy. David Montgomery got traded to Houston and Sonic gets the whole backfield. He's already at a career-high 250 carries and a career-best 77 catches for 616 yards, and now the reps go up from there. He's a CMC-workload back with a massive extension and he should be in the OPOY conversation. Do not let him get past pick four in your draft.
The scary part is the secondary. Brian Branch tore his Achilles late last season and Kerby Joseph's knee limited him to six games, and both opened camp on PUP. Joseph leads the NFL in interceptions since 2022 with 20 over four years. When those two are on the field together this is a completely different defense. When they're not, Detroit is holding it together with NFL journeymen again.
And of course, Lu's favorite player, Aidan Hutchinson, is still out there wrecking offenses. He got a sack in what felt like every game I wrote about last year. Sam LaPorta's health is the other one to watch, because Goff needs that middle-of-the-field option back.
Remember Week 3, when Detroit put up 52 on Chicago and I wrote "the Lions are so back"? That version of this offense still exists. Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Gibbs, Jameson Williams — that group didn't age out, it just got blocked badly for a year.
Detroit is the betting favorite anywhere from +140 to +185, and the reason is the schedule. Their unique opponents are Tennessee, the Giants and Arizona, whose win totals add up to 18.5 games combined. The next closest team in this division is at 26.5. That's not a small edge. That's a head start.
2 – Chicago Bears
2025: 11-6 (1st in NFC North, lost Divisional Round)
The defending division champs at No. 2, and this is the ranking I question the most.
What Ben Johnson did in year one was genuinely absurd. Chicago went from last place to an 11-6 division title, their first since 2018. Then they beat Green Bay 31-27 in the wild card round — their first playoff win in 15 years and their biggest playoff comeback since 1933 — and lost to the Rams in overtime in the divisional round. They were one overtime possession from the NFC Championship Game.
In Week 11 I asked if Caleb Williams was growing up right in front of us and told his critics to sit back down. He then finished with seven total comeback wins, broke Erik Kramer's franchise single-season passing record and landed the Madden 27 cover. Un-oh, do we have another Madden Curse on our hands?? The question in year three isn't the ceiling anymore, it's the floor. The explosive stuff is already there. He needs to stop having those three-drive stretches where the offense just evaporates. Do that and he's in the MVP conversation, and he's got Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland to do it with.
Now the bad news, and it's real. Back in Week 8 I noted that this defense led the league in takeaways and that it was taking enormous pressure off Caleb. They finished with a league-high 33. Kevin Byard, a first-team All-Pro who led the NFL with seven interceptions, is gone. Nahshon Wright, who led the NFL with eight takeaways, is gone. Those two alone accounted for 15 of the 33. You don't replace 45% of your turnovers with vibes. Coby Bryant and Cam Lewis are fine, but this comes down to whether first-round rookie Dillon Thieneman is ready to start in Dennis Allen's scheme in September. Jaquan Brisker and Tremaine Edmunds are out the door too, and DJ Moore is gone from the receiver room.
The front four didn't get touched either. Montez Sweat still has nobody proven rushing opposite him. Grady Jarrett and Gervon Dexter both need bounce-backs. Austin Booker flashed late. Shemar Turner is coming off an ACL tear. That's a lot of "hopefully."
Left tackle is a mess too. Ozzy Trapilo hurt his patellar tendon in the wild card game and won't be ready to start the year, so Braxton Jones, Jedrick Wills and Theo Benedet are fighting for it. Drew Dalman abruptly retired, so Garrett Bradbury is the presumptive center with rookie Logan Jones pushing.
Here's the killer: Chicago has the hardest schedule in the NFL by 2025 opponent record, including nine games against playoff teams. Same team, same record, they'd finish worse. I still like them at +330. And I will be checking the backfield every single week to see if I get to say Kyle Monangai out loud again.
3 – Green Bay Packers
2025: 9-7-1 (2nd in NFC North)
Nobody in football humbled me more than this team last year. Week 2 I said Micah Parsons made this defense something to be feared. Week 3 I said I had no idea they'd be THIS good. Week 6 I admitted I was way too high on them. Week 8 I asked how I could possibly have been more wrong. Week 11 I called them "just a bad team." I ran the entire emotional gauntlet in nine weeks and they finished 9-7-1.
That's four straight seasons without winning this division and a third straight year as the No. 7 seed, which ended with a 31-27 loss in Chicago after leading. I hate to admit it but Jordan Love is still legitimately good — Green Bay ranks fifth in the league in both yards per play and points per drive since he took over — and the defense only gave up 360 points. This is a solid, frustrating, perpetually-almost team.
And now here comes the injury bill. Micah Parsons tore his ACL and had a meniscus procedure in December. He's opening camp on PUP, which wipes out the first four games minimum, with a nine-month clock that points to October. They gave up two first-round picks and Kenny Clark for him. Then they traded Rashan Gary to Dallas. So the edge rush for the first month and a half is Lukas Van Ness, who has never found it, and a fourth-round rookie. Good luck defense.
They also cleaned up the receiver logjam I complained about all last year. Romeo Doubs left for New England, Dontayvion Wicks got traded to Philly, and Jayden Reed and Christian Watson both got extensions. That leaves a clean top three of Reed, Watson and Matthew Golden, who closed his uneven rookie year with 4 catches for 84 and a score in that playoff loss. Tucker Kraft, who I said might be TE of the year before he tore his ACL in November, is targeting Week 1 with no pitch count. If Kraft is actually right, this offense is dangerous.
Josh Jacobs' legal situation from May is still unresolved with no word on league discipline, which is a genuine availability question for a team whose run game runs entirely through him. Behind him are Chris Brooks and MarShawn Lloyd, who has never been able to stay on the field. My guy Emanuel Wilson, the waiver wire pick I defended for weeks, is in Seattle now, so I can't even recommend him here. Elgton Jenkins, Quay Walker and Nate Hobbs are all gone too.
Green Bay had 17 players in the rehab group at minicamp, 11 of them projected as real players. They're priced around +195 to +273 as the second choice and they have the third-hardest schedule.
4 – Minnesota Vikings
2025: 9-8 (3rd in NFC North)
Let me take my victory lap first. Week 2, JJ McCarthy threw three touchdowns in the fourth quarter and I said he proved me wrong. Week 3, after he looked lost and scared against Atlanta, I wrote "I'm back to thinking McCarthy just aint it" and called for former Super Bowl champ and Tyler King favorite Carson Wentz. Point James. McCarthy finished with 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 10 starts. Tyler, I'm sorry about Carson.
And here's the wild part — Minnesota went 6-4 in those games. This roster won nine games while getting nothing from their quarterbacks. Brian Flores had them third in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.7, fourth in points per drive allowed, and pressuring the quarterback at the highest rate in the entire league at 44.5%. They gave up fewer points than anybody else in this division. They were, no exaggeration, a quarterback away.
So they went and got Kyler Murray, who Arizona released and is still paying $36.8 million while Minnesota pays him the minimum. Kevin O'Connell keeps insisting it's a real competition (lol what a liar), which he wouldn't have to keep saying if anybody believed it. Murray took roughly twice the first-team reps early, though McCarthy did out-snap him 32-26 in one practice. O'Connell wants it settled before the joint practices with Baltimore on August 19-20.
The problem is that neither of them has separated. Reports out of Eagan describe both guys as "just fine," and in Mike Sando's survey of 50 coaches and executives, Murray came in 23rd and McCarthy 34th — meaning every other starting quarterback in this division was ranked ahead of both of them. Fine doesn't beat Goff, Love and Caleb Williams six times a year.
Trading Jonathan Greenard to Philadelphia also gutted the pass rush that made that defense go. Dallas Turner, who they moved up for at No. 10 in 2024, and Andrew Van Ginkel are the top two, and after that it's Bo Richter, Chaz Chambliss and Tyler Batty, who have one career sack between the three of them. One. Flores is going to have to scheme pressure out of thin air, which, honestly, he might.
The weapons are absolutely there — Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings (gonna miss this guy), who bolted San Francisco for Minnesota and is going to catch about 70 balls out of spite. Fifth-round corner Charles Demmings has reportedly been making plays on that group daily, and first-rounder Caleb Banks is fully cleared after foot surgery. Harrison Smith still hasn't decided whether he's coming back, and Minnesota didn't sign a veteran to replace him, so if the Hitman retires it's Jay Ward, Theo Jackson and a third-round rookie sorting it out. Flores leans on safety versatility more than almost any coordinator alive, so that decision matters way more than it looks.
They're the longest price in the division somewhere between +500 and +1000. If Murray is even 2021 Kyler for eleven games, that number is a steal. That's a big if.