NHL Playoff Preview: Conference Finals
Welcome to the Conference Finals Preview. I am going to use this intro to go on an apology tour, because I owe apologies for many many many players in this league. I am sorry to the following: Seth Jones, the Carolina Hurricanes (just all of em), Mikko Rantanen, John Klingberg, Darnell Nurse, Stuart Skinner, Kris Knoblauch, Evan Bouchard, Evander Kane, and Trent Frederic. Yes, many of these guys are Oilers because I sit here with foot in mouth about my own damn team. I will get into that.
On a very serious note, I am speaking on behalf of all of us here at TLDR Podcast, our condolences are with Mark Scheifele and his family. For those that don’t know, Scheifele lost his father the night before their game 6 on Saturday. He gutted it out and played the game and scored a goal. Unfortunately, they didn’t manage to kill his very necessary penalty and lost the game. The fact that he even played the game is a testament to what his team means to him, know his biggest fan would have wanted him there. The ending of that game was as heartbreaking as it was heart-warming, and that is in large part to the entire Dallas Stars team and fan base. You put your heart and soul on the line Mark and our thoughts and prayers are with you.
Now let’s preview this Conference Finals…many teams look familiar! Crazy stat…only 1 team in the top 8 finishers are left fighting for the Cup, Dallas finished 5th. The next best seed was the 9th placed Edmonton Oilers. The West will host the Stanley Cup Final this year, regardless of who wins.
Eastern Conference Final
Carolina Hurricanes (2nd Metropolitan Division)
vs Florida Panthers (3rd Atlantic Division)
The Carolina Hurricanes feel like they took care of Washington nearly a month ago. With what was considered the “boring” series of the bunch, the Hurricanes took care of the Capitals in a swift 5 game series, dominating much of the series. They owned 56% of the expected goals and held the Capitals to a whopping 4 goals all series. The Canes have not been getting it done from their prolific offense, quite the contrary. The Hurricanes offense have generated the least amount of goals of the remaining teams at 19 while 5 on 5, granted they have played the least amount of games. They have generated nearly 27 expected goals, so their finish remains something to be desired. Svechnikov has had a great playoffs but he will be asked to continue that. They are finding scoring down the lineup with the likes of Taylor Hall looking great with his 6 points. The Hurricanes are possession merchants by sheer shot volume, but they will need to generate more high-danger chances and finish on those chances. Defensively, the Canes sit 9th in expected goals against, meaning they aren’t suppressing as much as they probably should. Their possession and forecheck has been the stalwart of their high-level defensive numbers. Under the hood, you’d expect to see better defensive numbers but nope. That said, Jacob Slavin is the best true defender in the NHL, he is unbelievable. The impressive goals against numbers have been a huge function of goaltending, as Freddy Andersen sits with the best save percentage in the playoffs and the best 5v5 goals saved above expected. The question is whether Freddy will remain healthy as he is notorious for going out after a bump, and does anyone think the Panthers won’t be crashing that cage? The Hurricanes have played this certain smother style year after year and it hasn’t gotten them over the hump, but you know they will defend strong and execute an onslaught of forechecking that can be very hard to beat.
The Maple Leafs lost another game 7, this version of same ol’ movie was to the Florida Panthers. I have to admit, I was wrong about the number of games it would take, but was right the entire time, the Leafs just cannot handle the Panthers. The Panthers depth is incredible all the way down the lineup, with their 3rd line one of best assembled. The Panthers offensively are very lethal as they sit 4th in expected goals for per 60, but they actually finish on those chances. Reinhart looks amazing, Barkov does his thing, and Carter Verhaeghe has been solid as well. Matty Tkachuk has yet to score but everyone knows he will find that gear, despite the fact that he’s undoubtedly ailing. Brad Marchand has been the perfect add for this nasty team. Defensively, I will sound like a broken record. They are one of, if not the best defensive team in the game. They sit second in expected goals against per 60 and 3rd in high danger chances against. It starts up front as they have not 1 but 2 Selke Finalists…on the same friken team! On the back end, they are so solid and Seth Jones has really found his game. It didn’t look good to begin but man he’s been as incredible as I remember him when he came into the league. Goaltending wise, Goalie Bob will Goalie Bob. His first couple games against the Leafs were bad, but he snapped out of it and has been nasty. He is still sporting a .901 SV% with a -2.81 5v5 Goals saved above expected, a sign of inconsistency. He is incredible at finding his game down the stretch so even if he does allow a few in the first games, don’t be shocked if he shuts it down following that
This is going to be quite the showdown. The Hurricanes are sitting as the team that needs to prove it because they can never seem to find enough goals to move past the 3rd round. They have the edge in net, but they will need to keep their forecheck up throughout the entire series. That will prove to be tough against a very tough and hungry Panthers team. They have demons to slay. The Panthers, on the other hand, is as locked in as ever. They might even be better than the they were last year at this point. The Panthers will beat you into submission most nights and I am not sure the Hurricanes can match that energy. The Hurricanes are a team I cannot trust to do it but I expect they will make a push! I am taking the Panthers going back to the Stanley Cup Final for the 3rd consecutive year in 6 hard fought games.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
Dallas Stars (2nd Central Division)
vs Edmonton Oilers (3rd Pacific Division)
The Dallas Stars had solid control of their series against the Jets in most situations. Though the Dallas Stars are the only team with a negative goal differential of the team remaining, courtesy of the mighty Colorado Avalanche. Offensively, the team is getting the absolute most out of Mikko Rantanen. This writer, as well as many others, believed he might have been a Makar and/or MacKinnon merchant. Instead, he’s leading the playoffs with 19 points and his line has been part of 26 of Dallas’ 34 playoff goals, 76% for Tyler who can’t math. But that is where the scoring seems to have stopped. Only Seguin has multiple tallies, so you wonder if the law of averages suggest they are due for a breakout. The depth has not been going for the Stars as the team without Rantanen and Hintz on the ice, they are getting caved in with a -9 goal differential. The team sits 8th in expected goals for, the worst of the remaining teams. The depth will need to step up. Defensively, things look almost more bleak as they sit 12th in expected goals against. Things seem to be looking better since Miro Heiskanen has returned from injury. The game seems to orbit around him when he’s on and Thomas Harley has been fantastic. However, the expected goal% dips considerably without either of these guys on the ice. We will see if things can improve. The impressive work for the Dallas Stars has been from their elite goaltender in Jake Oettinger. He sits with a strong 2.47 GAA and .917SV %. The Stars aren’t here without Otter. The defense improved against the Jets but Otter has been amazing to be the stop gap, which is not surprising as he sits 3rd in goals saved above expected. He will need to be that good in this series as the Oilers offense have been firing on all cylinders…ALL cylinders.
The Edmonton Oilers have proven me wrong. I know the Kings fans believe their should have won the series, they were caved in on the expected goal differential. So sure Alex and Tyler, they could have swept the series and that’s true, but the latter half of the series wasn’t close. And you know what also wasn’t close, the Oilers series against the Knights. They dominated the entire series, and if it wasn’t for a lousy performance and unlucky goal in game 3, they probably would have swept in their own right. They won every game in Vegas, which is insane by itself. Offensively, the Oilers this playoffs are not the Oilers of old. The story isn’t the McDrai show. They have been great but haven’t come close to what we’d expect from them this year. The Oilers sit 1st in expected goals for per game, generating a whopping 3 goals for 5 on 5. Unreal stuff, but it must be because McDrai is dominating the games. Quite the contrary good people, as the Oilers, for the first time in the McDrai era, have a +7-goal differential without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice. Yes, the Oilers offense has scored 16 of the 29 goal 5v5 without those two on the ice. The Oilers depth has been impressive to say the least. The issue the Oilers have, shockingly, is their Power Play, which has 1 goal against Vegas all series. Defensively the Oilers must be ass right? Nope. Just ask Connor McDavid about the defensive game of the Oilers, if you plan on getting punched in the mouth. Oilers sit 2nd in the playoffs (1st among the remaining teams) on expected goal against. Yes, the Edmonton Oilers are statistically the best defensive team under the hood. The likes of Bouchard with Kulak has been amazing. The reemergence of John Klingberg will go down as the most shocking thing of the season for me…I thought his career was over just a month ago. And the Oilers addition of Jake Walman has been nothing short of amazing. Oh yeah, forgot to mention that they are doing all of this WITHOUT Mattias Ekholm, their best defender. Goaltending has been the story. Calvin Pickard has been perfect this season with 6-0 record, but sits with an injury. Stu Skinner has changed the narrative after a horrendous start. He now has not let a goal in for over 120 minutes, and the last time a player scored on him was Leon friken Draisaitl…accidently. His inconsistencies are well known, but his record in games later in series is incredible…it truly is. He will need to bring it if they plan to go past the Stars.
This is a rematch of Round 3 in 2024. The Oilers beat the Stars last year in 6 games, in quite shocking fashion. Ask James, we were in Costa Rica for a Bachelor party, and I was watching the games in the swimming pool while it was raining…yes, I am crazy. This series has different makeup about it as Mikko Rantanen has been owning this league for weeks now. Draisaitl was tasked with shutting down Jack Eichel and did so perfectly, it’s a wonder if he will be tasked with Rantanen now. James was right, Draisaitl should be a Selke consideration. The Dallas Stars are finding timely goals and fantastic goaltending but lack the depth production. On paper, they have better depth, but they haven’t shown up yet. The Oilers depth is carrying Leon and Connor…where we are used the contrary. The Dallas Stars are going to be hungry to get past this round. The Oilers are 4 wins away from their 2nd consecutive Final appearance. For me, the depth of the Oilers has been too much for any team they have faced. Plus, I don’t know if Dallas will have the ability to stop the inevitability of the Oilers top Dogs. Jake Otter will steal a couple games so we will see the Oilers win in 6.