NHL Power Rankings: Week 4
Everyone has nearly played 10 games so far. In this young season, we may have seen the trade of the year already and a hard fall from grace by the Oilers. This week saw the return of Brady Tkachuk to Ottawa, and it was as delightful as it could have been. Let’s see what this week has in store. I also had to change my 5on5 data because Natural Stat Trick seems to be the way to go!
#16 New York Islanders (5-4-2, 12 points)
Previously #12
Pretty mediocre week for the Isles, who go 1-1-1 on the week. Where o where has the depth scoring beyond Schaefer gone. The Isles tend to own the puck when they play but their inability to score is about as legendary and known as anything. Some things never change.
#15 New York Rangers (7-5-1, 15 Points)
Previously #11
Are we finally getting the Alexis Lafreniere we expected all those years ago? He sits with 9-6-15 through 13 games and is showing no signs of slowing down. The Rangers, as whole, are slowing down in the 5 on 5 department. Goaltending seems to be hanging in there but they need to find the back of the net, and fast.
#14 Colorado Avalanche (6-5-1, 13 Points)
Previously #3
This Avalanche team is struggling. They are not carrying the play much at all with a staggering low 47.26% expected goal share. That’s not what you’d expect from the Avalanche who just dominated teams last year night in a night out. Defensively they are atrocious with a 9th worst expected goals against average. They are scoring well above their expected levels but if that dries up…things might go sideways for this team. Early hiccup or a harbinger of things to come.
#13 Florida Panthers (6-4-2, 14 Points)
Previously #8
The goals are coming in spurts but that’s about it. If someone isn’t scoring a hattrick, no ones scoring at all. 4-11 goal differential this week. More weeks like that won’t cut it in this division or conference. They are elite defensively but they aren’t getting the saves and not potting the goals. Things not looking too consistent for the Cats after all.
#12 Ottawa Senators (8-4-0, 16 Points)
Previously #14
The Sens are a team that has been getting caved in 5 on 5 but are scoring above their expected clip and getting saves well above their expected clip 5 on 5. 12.8% powerplay is much to be desired and if this team wants to find themselves in the playoffs, they need to fix that. What a performance with Brady Tkachuck coming back though. That will be remembered for sure.
#11 Toronto Maple Leafs (7-4-2, 16 Points)
Previously #9
Toronto looks like a solid team. Auston Matthews has really started to look good as of late and we might be seeing the Matthews of days come and gone. He owned McDavo and Drai in Edmonton on Saturday. +12 goal differential tops off a perfect week. They need work to start controlling the expected goal share on a consistent basis but we might be seeing the beginning of the Maple Leafs comeback.
#10 Montreal Canadiens (6-3-2, 14 Points)
Previously #15
Habs have really been trending up 5 on 5 with a strong 54% expected goal share. You can pinpoint the underachievers in Dobes and Newhook, that alongside the big disappointment in Chris Kreider. He is getting caved in. Othe than that, huge win in the Heritage Classic over Winnipeg despite getting outshot badly.
#9 Edmonton Oilers (8-2-1, 17 Points)
Previously #5
Exposed big time. The Oilers were trending as this powerhouse line 1, and nothing below that. It was tested and proved both against Carolina and especially against the Leafs. Am I overly concerned? No. Congrats to Leon Draisaitl who’s second in the league in points this year with 23 with an incredible 2.09 P/GP. Unreal stuff. I really can’t imagine anything better than this….and I guess good job to Connor McDavid with your 3.0P/GP (who’s on pace for over 250 points and could be the 2nd player in history to score 200 points in a season). Solid work Connor.
#8 Tampa Bay Lightning (7-3-1, 15 Points)
Previously #4
Tampa Bay moves out John Carlson from the QB position on the PP for Charle-Edouard D’Astous. The result, a solid 25% on the week for the PP. They will take what they can get. Carlson might be getting too old, or he just needs a reset. That being said, the Bolts are a strong 5 on 5 team and such a good defensive team. I always like this Bolts team but I would like to see more offensive output.
#7 New Jersey Devils (7-4-0, 14 Points)
Previously Unranked
The Devils are actually a good team. I don’t love their lineup down the middle by any means, and I think they need to figure that out ASAP. But that being said, their underlying 5 on 5 numbers are so good. They own a 64% expected goal share with the ability to generate at a top of league clip with managing to defend with the best of the league. They need to figure out some goaltending…oh right! They did! They managed to get Connor Hellebuyck in what could be the trade of the year. Their forward depth took a hit but Connor Hellebuyck makes this team interesting, at least on paper.
#6 Utah Mammoth (8-4-0, 16 Points)
Unchanged
Utah goes 2-1 for the week with a 0 goal differential in those games. Not horrible week but not a great week either. They are still just so strong 5on5 with an ability to generate offensively at a nice clip while maintaining strong suppression numbers. They lack the ability to finish at times but that comes with being a team with limited high-end talent. I expect Utah to be active in the trade markets. I also would have expected a strong push for Hellebuyck.
#5 Dallas Stars (7-3-1, 15 points)
Previously #10
What a strong week for the Stars, and they are just printing the Cup Points for Tyler right now. 5 straight wins have erased the slow start for this team. They knocked off their nemesis in Colorado and managed Boston as well. This team is also getting fantastic goaltending 5on5 with a strong +5.43 saves above expected. They are a low event team and I would like to see more generation offensively 5 on 5 but they will take what they can get. They have been opportunistic for sure.
#4 Boston Bruins (9-2-1, 19 Points)
Previously #9
Okay I am done being a hater. 9-2-1 in their first 12 games is a fantastic start for the Bs. Morgan Geekie needs to pick it up but looking at this team as a whole, they added a +7 to their goal differential and picked up 5 points in 3 games to boot. Expected goals share are starting to emerge in the positive. Though the biggest highlight is the goaltending. +12.95 saves above expected, tops of the league by a wide margin. They aren’t the best defensive in the league but they know how to keep the puck out of the net. Swayman has been fantastic.
#3 Vegas Golden Knights (8-4-1, 17 Points)
Previously #1
It was a tough week for the Knights but this lineup is still so very strong. Rasmus Andersson needs to get going though because they need him to show what he was capable of doing there in Calgary. Underlying numbers suggest he is getting caved in. He’s getting paid a lot and not getting it done. This ranking is due to their lineup on paper, though this week could be the start of a downfall. But we know what happens when I saw those things.
#2 Minnesota Wild (8-3-2, 18 Points)
Previously #7
Points in 5 of their last 6 games is something to behold. The Wild are such a low event team to the positive. They don’t give up a lot, though their generation could be a hell of a lot better. They looked very tough to play against when they faced the Oilers this week. The big reason for their ranking is the 5on5 goaltending that is seeing a strong 4.94+ saves above expected. Injuries to Brock Faber and Gustavsson injuries isn’t hampering this team. The depth is coming through!
#1 Carolina Hurricanes (9-2-2, 20 points)
Previously #2
And here the Hurricanes come back to their spot atop the league. Their start has been hot and its quite impressive as a Stanley Cup champion team just months ago. Their offense is elite and it went toe to toe with McDavid and company. Their issue is goaltending, where Brandon Bussi sits with a .865SV%. Their expected goals for per game 5on5 is a 3.59…that’s just elite. They just need to get the goaltending.