Stanley Cup Playoffs: Round 2
May hockey is upon us! This writer is still licking his wounds from his teams rough go at the playoff this season. Reality of the situation is the better team won and here’s to hoping the Ducks bring joy to James, for as long as they can. The other TLDR Boys just watch the hockey for what it is, incredible this time of year. This year’s version of round 2 has so much intrigue with Buffalo taking on Montreal, finally winning a series after finally making the playoffs. Carolina seemingly having a cakewalk to ANOTHER conference final. The Minnesota/Colorado series could be considered a Stanley Cup Final itself. And the Ducks first trip back taking on the old guard in Vegas. I will say this, the first thing I said to my wife once the clock turned 0:00 in my Oiler’s season was “we aren’t done watching hockey.” We aren’t done…
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Buffalo Sabres (1st Atlantic Division) vs. Montreal Canadiens (3rd Atlantic Division)
The Buffalo Sabres continue their legendary season. They rose from the ashes in the middle of this season and played some of the best hockey in the league for a very long time. They found their way back to the playoffs and handled the Boston Bruins handedly throughout much of the series. Again, the goalie merchant Boston Bruins were exposed as I expected. Sorry, had to add that jab. This offense is getting so much success from its starts including Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch each with 7 points in 6 games. This team is getting production as a collective unit, as they have all season. Buffalo owned their series expected goal battle and it showed. The team struggled to score early in the series but once they solved Swayman, it was over. On the back end, Rasmus Dahlin continues to quietly be one of the best in the league, and Bowen Byram is showing just how productive he can be with 5 points so far this playoffs. In the net, Alex Lyon seems like he’s the Sabres guy right now. UPL, while his name is amazing, didn’t have the greatest outing in his games. Alex Lyon has a .955 SV% and 1.14GAA. I know it’s the Boston Bruins but that is a key reason why the Sabres are where they are.
Montreal. What a steal of a game 7 by the Habs vs the Bolts. The Habs had a whopping 9 shots on net all game and stole game 7 from the Bolts who seemingly controlled the entire game. But I want to put a pause on the idea that Montreal stole the season because this game was not reflective of what we saw throughout. The two teams just traded games all the way through and it is true that Montreal lost the expected goal battle but maybe won the goalie battle. Yes, Vasi was outplayed. The story has been how quiet the likes of Suzuki, Caulfield, and Slafkovsky have been. It wasn’t until game 7 that we saw a 5 on 5 goal, and they have been outchanced throughout the run so far. Their points are there but mainly on the PP and that just doesn’t spell out a recipe for success. Lane Hutson on the backend was fantastic and a standout. This team wasn’t the 5 on 5 team they need to be to go the distance but they were enough to get through the Bolts who were nursing some injuries and inconsistent play. The biggest highlight of this team was Jakub Dobes between the pipes. He was incredible all the way through posting a .953 SV% and 2.03 GAA. These are the stats that prove he is playing well enough to allow his team to win.
These two teams will be a fun matchup because there is a nice mix of young skill and high end goaltending. This series will undoubtedly be the loudest between the crazed fans in Buffalo and the best fans in hockey’s mecca, this is going to be a passionate series of epic proportion. Keep the remote close because you may need to turn it down a notch. Montreal young core will need to find their game 5 on 5 because they are facing a team who is finding their scoring 5 on 5. Buffalo will need to realize they aren’t playing the lowly Bruins anymore and will need to keep improving on their PK percentage because Montreal can get theirs on the man advantage. For me, the way Buffalo plays just screams they are ready to continue their push. Their stars are performing 5 on 5, they already managed to solve one of the best net minders in the league, and that building will be rocking.
Buffalo in 6.
Carolina Hurricanes (1st Metropolitan Division) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (3rd Metropolitan Division)
If you forgot that Carolina was in the playoffs, that’s because they quietly swept the Ottawa Senators. Carolina, from the jump, seems like the team to beat in the East. They never relinquished the lead once in the entire series, controlling the entire 4 game series from start to finish. Carolina’s second line has been the story with Logan Stankoven scoring in all of his 4 games vs the Sens. Defensively, this team has locked it down and they are getting the goaltending to back that up. Carolina beats you through sheer relentless checking. In every zone, in every soft area, and in every situation. Their PK is incredibly aggressive and they will dominate you whether you like it or not. The scary part of all of this is the fact that Carolina first line was held to peanuts so far. If they find their game, I don’t really know if there’s a team in the East that has a chance right now. Taylor Hall has been sensational with 7 points so far and Stankoven can’t stop scoring. Their PP has dried up a bit and they will need to find their PP game if they plan to make it far though. I will say that.
Philadelphia is still not supposed to be here. I will just say that right now. Early in their series vs the Penguins they had shown signs of domination on the scoreboard but the underlying analytics told a different story. The Flyers are lucky the Pens allowed Skinner to play as many games as he did because Silovs likely would have ended the Flyers season early. The Flyers managed to muster up goals to their credit. Enough to win a series against the Penguins who aren’t stalwarts defensively. This opponent is quite few large notches above that. They sit 14th in expected goal generation and have a measly 11% PP. Tocchet, to his credit, has is style running through the team defensively and they are able to suppress to a good extent. The inability for the Flyers to have sustained pressure for long periods of time is a cause of concern.
This series isn’t going to be a series. I am sorry to say. Do I sound grumpy? Perhaps I am, my co hosts will decide. The Flyers just are not in the same weight class as this Carolina team. Carolina will beat this team with sheer relentless forechecking. The underlying analytics and the easy to understand analytics show us that there’s a gross mismatch here. This is the cakewalk that the Hurricanes get every year. The question is, are they going to be prepared to take it all the way?
Carolina in 5.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Colorado Avalanche (1st Central Division) vs. Minnesota Wild (3rd Central Division)
The Colorado Avalanche made quick work of the LA Kings. I know that it seemed like the Kings didn’t embarrass themselves, and they didn’t but a sweep is a sweep. It just didn’t seem like the Avs were tested all that much. The underlying analytics would agree with me here. The scoring was low for sure but scoring came up and down the lineup from the Avs. Gabe Landeskog has done his thing and the Avs are better off for it. Colorado all season has been elite at chance creation, leading the league all the way through. They managed to generate nearly 3 goals per 60 while 5 on 5 which is exactly why they are where they are. They are masterful skill wise and their IQ is as high as any. Their center depth is what separate this team and they also have two of the best players on the planet in MacKinnon and Makar. Their PP is their kryptonite and when you are facing a team that has a good PP, you need to find a way to improve because at this level, that could be the difference. Colorado is also getting the goaltending from Wedgewood, who has a staggering 6.19 goals saved above expected. He will need to keep bringing it.
Minnesota looked so good in their series against the Stars. The injection of Quinn Hughes into this lineup has been nothing short of amazing. Our podcast boys criticized this team for not doing enough at the deadline, guys they got the best American D-man on the planet who managed to record the most points in a season by a D in franchise history only playing half of the season for the team. Matt Boldy continues to shine for this team, recording 9 points in his series against the stars alongside superstar Kirill the Thrill. While the depth might not be quite there vs the Avs, their forward line is no slouch with key veterans who know what it takes to win. The Minny D Core is known for its core defense. They might not be the darlings offensively, but they are gifted in their ability to shut down offenses. Brodin and Jared Spurgeon are hard nosed defenders to play against and will need to be that in order to combat this dynamic Avs offense. Jesper Wallstedt will need to be a wall like he was against Dallas. He currently sits with a .924% and 7.61 goals saved above expected. He will need to keep that up.
This series is the Western Conference Final. I don’t mean any disrespect to my fellow podcaster and his Ducks. I do mean disrespect to the Knights because it’s the Knights of course. I know that anyone has a chance but these two teams have been the best in the league all season and they are facing off this early. Colorado’s play all season has been like a well oiled machine, overwhelming you with pressure, skill, and a willingness to find the back of the net. Minnesota has been built with defensive in mind, yet injecting Quinn Hughes into the mix has added an offensive dynamic that has proven can help this team run with the best of teams. The analytics would tell you that the Avs are the team to beat, and they likely are. However, after finally breaking through the first round for the first time in 11 years, and with this lineup playing its best hockey ever, I think we may see a long series. Minnesota was tested and succeeded and I wonder if the Avs lack of a true test yet might have them scrambling to get settled before its too late. I’ll take the upset.
Minnesota in 7.
Vegas Golden Knights (1st Pacific Division) vs Anaheim Ducks (3rd Pacific Division)
The Golden Knights commanded the series against the Mammoth when it mattered most. Utah looked threatening at times but perhaps didn’t have the high end talent needed to compete when it mattered most. The Knights are known for their incredible depth at forward and that only compounded when Mitch Marner put on his gold sweater. Jack Eichel has 9 points this playoffs, quietly showing why he’s one of my favorite players in the league. Mitch Marner is proving he can play on the biggest stage. Offensively, the Knights found a way to score in bunches, tied for 2nd for most scoring in round 1. The biggest worry for this team is their backend. Do the Knights have enough to go far on this backend. They relied too much on defenders who are no longer part of the mix. Sure you have Shea Theodore but they don’t have the size that Anaheim does on the backend. When push comes to shove, that could be the difference. Carter Hart was both a trainwreck and incredible, all throughout a single series. You don’t know what you’re going to get with him and against a Ducks team that can score at will...that could be a problem.
The Anaheim Ducks stunned the Oilers in round 1. They were the faster, more physical, and more desperate team the entire round and it showed on the scoresheet. Anaheim’s offense was relentless, taking advantage of every mistake the Oilers made. Their PP gave them juice every single night, which sits at a ridiculous 50% clip. The young Ducks made quick work of their opportunities and didn’t shy away from anything. The sprinkle of veteran presence in Killorn showed positive and that 4th line was nothing short of incredible. Defensively, this team stepped the heck up. They dominated the best the best player on the planet and made him look very human. Jackson Lacombe was dominant and the rest of his big fellow defenders could be a real problem for the Vegas Golden Knights. However, their defensive structure broke down too often, especially when you consider how bad the Oilers actually were. They will need to hold the line if they plan to take on a much faster and physical Knights team. I hate to say this but Lukas Dostal was bad this series. The goals he let in just cannot go in anymore. Sure the games he won he looked solid but he needs more consecutive quality starts if he wants his team to remain competitive because no longer can you win games when you let 4+ in every night.
My heart and brain are in different feelings right now. I want the Ducks to do well, truly. They remind me of my Oilers of 2017. They are up and coming, they are fast, hungry and going to dominate the league for years to come. The Knights just have been there and their depth down the middle is so hard to compete against. At the end of the day, I think that the Ducks will improve on their game and learn to play playoff hockey quickly and it will start to wear down the Knights. They need to play more direct and more north south going forward but Coach Q will be there to usher that. I am going to take the Ducks here.
Anaheim in 6.