NHL Playoff Preview: Round 2
Holy smokes. That first round was…something. I thought the drug cartels were bad…the NHL is slinging drugs like its 1970. Every series was insane, every game had a storyline. Two unbelievable game 7s, both of which had multigoal comebacks…in the last minutes of each game no less. There had been 5 times prior in NHL history that a winning team came back from a 2 goal deficit in the 3rd…it happened on back-to-back nights. Toronto found a way to not screw it up and Los Angeles handed their control of a series on a silver platter to the Edmonton Oilers. The NHL is on crack. Let us break down the 2nd round.
2025 Round 2: Divisional Final
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Toronto Maple Leafs (1st Atlantic Division) vs Florida Panthers (3rd Atlantic Division)
The Toronto Maple Leafs are back to the 2nd round ladies and gentlemen. Their fans are treating it is they won the Cup already, which is admirable because making to the 2nd round is soooo hard. Cheekiness aside, the Maple Leafs went up early in the series, taking a 3-0 control of the series against their little brother. They did need to win in OT a couple times but they found a way. Their game 4 was destined to be a loss, it is just so hard to beat a desperate team 4 times in a row, on the road. Game 5 was the storyline for this Leafs team. For the first time in recent history, this core 4 had the chance to prove the haters wrong, that they are different. They were at home, in control of the series, in control of the line matchups, and their fans in the stands. They were playing the weakest team they’ve matched up against in the 1st round and had a chance to show they had the killer instinct to end the series and move on. Their game 5 was an absolute dud. The core 4 were pretty bad, especially Willy Nylander on that backcheck on the short-handed goal against. They looked cooked and I thought they would lose in Ottawa in game 6. Their guys found a way with Nylander stepping back up and taking control. Craig Berube settled the boys down and the Leafs took care of business. The Leafs were the 3rd best on the PP and that is expected to continue. The top guys found their points early but were a little lost in the latter part, until the very end.
Florida Panthers are inevitable. I was the only one on the pod who believed the Panthers would win, but I didn’t forsee a complete domination of the Bolts. It wasn’t even close. The East still runs through Florida. They played possum early because once they got Matty Tkachuk back, it wasn’t even close. They got their production all the way down the lineup, but their top guys are producing at point per game pace, as needed at this time of year. The Panthers are dirty, nasty, and have that mentality to win. Defensively, the Panthers were as stout as ever and are the model defensive unit. The Anaconda Chokehold is back, which isn’t surprising when you have Barkov and Reinhart in the lineup. Seth Jones was amazing, and I didn’t expect that at all. 88.9 PK% is impressive, but how will it fare against the lethal Leafs PP. Goalie Bob has proved he will not lose you a series, and he didn’t. His consistency gives the Cats a chance to win every single night.
This is the matchup that gives the Leafs another chance to prove they are different. They fumbled the bag the first time, but now they have a chance to turn the narrative on its head. These aren’t the same teams who played each other 2 years ago. The Panthers are experienced, hungry, and absolute juggernauts of a hockey team. The Leafs have exorcised some demons but still have some to overcome and Berube has this team moving the right direction. This will come down to who can match up against the brutal nastiness of the Florida Panthers. Aaron Ekblad was fine taking that dumb 2 game suspension. Why? Because the Florida Panthers will do ANYTHING to win the Stanley Cup. Dumb stuff, heroic stuff, and smart stuff. The Leafs made the easy Ottawa series easy, while the Panthers made the tough Tampa series a cake walk. I don’t see who can match that mentality on this Leafs roster. Toronto lost me in that Game 5 effort, and I hope the fans enjoy their round 1 win, because it's over in 5. Florida in 5.
Washington Capitals (1st Metropolitan Division) vs Carolina Hurricanes (2nd Metropolitan Division)
The Capitals took care of business against the young and up and coming Montreal team. Ovechkin scored key goals and Dylan Strome showed up in spades. The Caps never trailed in any game, and they were in control in most situations. They had their hands full with that top line in Montreal and that does bring me some concern for this group because the depth of their opponents are only getting deeper and they had issues with a young Montreal top line. The Caps shooting percentage continued. Defensively, I do have concerns given the way the series went. Sure, they didn’t trail but their D got worked at times in the series and you wonder if that will rear its ugly head. Their D depth lost the expected goal differential, luckily their forwards can finish. The top unit in Carlson and Chychrun, against that top line in Montreal, lost the puck possession metrics, how will that fare against 3 straight lines who can forecheck like no other team does? The Capitals find a way to find the back of the net better than most and they will need that to continue.
The Hurricanes series was the only one that had the NHL selling the devil’s grass instead of the Columbian bam bam. It was boring, chill, and predictable. They matched up against an overmatched New Jersey team. Without Jack Hughes, the Devils never had a chance. Somehow, the Hurricanes scored more goals than Washington did in the 1st round. The PP issues didn’t show up in the 1st round, instead clicking at a solid 31% clip. Svechnikov seemed to get off the schneid but can that continue. The forward lines on this team forecheck better than any team, all the way down the lineup. It is relentless, they punish their opposing D, that’s their game. Their Center depth is an issue production wise and that will need to change fast. Carolina’s top unit on the back end was even more pressed than the Capitals was! Meier and Hischier had their way with Staal and Martinook. Those two will need to find a new level as they take on a much deeper Washington team. Goaltending wise, Andersen needs to get back. I love the Kochetkov story, but they are now facing the best goal scorer in NHL history.
This is the matchup that we expected. If anyone truly had these two teams not facing each other, you were just playing the odds game. They each had no issues managing their matchups, but man they both look cooked past this series. They don’t feel like Cup contenders to me. That could all change after this series, but it will take work from both teams. Hurricanes will have their hands full with Tom Wilson who has been unbelievable. He is making a case to be on Team Canada for the Olympics, call me insane I do not care. The Hurricanes backend is too weak to manage this Capitals team and the Canes cannot score enough to break through. The Capitals will continue to find the back of the net. They will need to manage the shot onslaught that will ensue from the Canes but just think that the Capitals can manage it after all. I have Capitals in 6 on this one.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Winnipeg Jets (1st Central Division) vs Dallas Stars (2nd Central Division)
Wow. The Jets Game 7 was insane. This is that crack I was talking about. Down 3-1 with less than 2 minutes left, they find a way to tie the game with 1.6 seconds left and then go on to win in double OT. That game is a generational game. We will be talking about this for years. They did this without the likes of Morrisey and Scheifele in the lineup. The path to Game 7 was amazing. The series was dominated by the home team in every game. The offense found its game, especially Kyle Connor. He sits with 12 in 7 games. The Jets needed to answer to the physical force of the Blues, and they did for the most part. The series was the most physical from the initial puck drop. Defensively, this team was awful at times. The NHL Playoffs is won and lost in dirty areas. The Jets were the best team in the NHL, but they looked average in the 1st round against a wildcard team. They were awful at clearing the net, they were awful at shot suppression, and they broke down at key times. The elephant in the room was Connor Hellebuyck. He was awful, plain and simple. He sits with a 4.42 GAA and .830SV%. That’s 2nd worst in the playoffs. He had no help in cases, no doubt. He cannot make a stop while screened, which is a problem in the playoffs. I know its certainly harder but almost every other goalie has found a way. His glove was exposed. He plays so deep in his net and that’s a problem. He is the only goalie with a negative double digit saves above expected. He got the job done last night but will need to prove the demons were exorcised. It will help that the Jets learn to play playoff hockey fast because Dallas is not the St. Louis Blues. The Jets have a negative goal differential going into Round 2.
Dallas Stars were without Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson. They were up against a deep Colorado team that traded their star forward, Mikko Rantanen, for depth to go the distance. It was an unexpected, out of nowhere, trade that was ultimate undoing. The Dallas Stars were the team many expected would lose in a series where they seemed outmatched after game 4. Dallas lost the possession numbers in many times throughout the series and were asked to outplay the mighty MacKinnon and Makar, and they did. They came back in Game 7 in the 3rd, on the back of an ultimate hattrick from none other than Mikko Rantanen. His performance throughout the series changed the narrative from this writer. He is NOT a MacKinnon merchant; he can produce all on his own. Offensively, they looked good without Jason Robertson. They have depth and the ability to defend. Defensively, they held their own without Miro Heiskanen. Both of these boys are hopefully back this series and that could a be a huge swing for the Stars. Between the pipes, Jake Oettinger may have played his way into the starter’s net for the 2026 Playoffs for Team USA. He’s sitting with a .911 SV% against a mighty offensive unit. And sits with a 3.0 goals saved above expected, which is more than enough to help give your team a chance to win, and they did.
I was right in that idea that the Jets series was a trap series. They are lucky to be here. I will take this to the grave, the winning goalie of this series should be Team USA’s starting net minder in February. Connor Hellebuyck will have a chance to shut me up but will need to do so against a very very deep Stars team who managed to win a series without their best D and their highest producing forward. The Stars are expected to get those guys back in the coming games. It will be important for Jets to win both of their home games before those guys come back because a failure to take those will make it very hard to overcome that. I have Stars in 6 and they will be punching their ticket to the Western Conference Final for the 3rd straight season.
Vegas Golden Knights (1st Pacific Division) vs Edmonton Oilers (2nd Pacific Division)
The Vegas Golden Knights had their hands full folks. They took Game 1 before dropping 2 straight, and barely finding a way in their subsequent games. Kiril Kaprizov’s line kind of had their way with the Vegas Golden Knights at key times. The offense for the Knights struggled relative to their strong regular season. Their top guys took a while to get going and no player sits with a point per game. Their depth had to bail them out, but you need that at this time around. Defensively, their top line status was solid enough but Adin Hill struggled. Pietrangelo and Hanifin were leaned on heavily and they managed to win a series. The depth D were exposed and that will need to be cleaned up if they hope to manage a deeper Edmonton team this time around. Adin Hill did not look like his cup winning self from 2023. He looked better down the stretch and will need to keep that up as well. The Knights are a big, strong team that just slow the game down. They are deep and will roll their lines all the way through. The Knights are smart as well and will play on that fact to take them back to the Western Conference Final.
The Edmonton Oilers. My goodness. They managed to beat the Kings for yet another time. I did not expect it honestly. There were so many question marks and unknowns that turned out the exact opposite of what I thought would happen, aside for the Stu Skinner situation. The Oilers won the series as much as the Kings lost the series. Bad coaching and the inability to stifle the depth pieces that showed through was the Kings ultimate undoing, despite having the best makeup to beat the Oilers. Offensively, the big dogs did their work as expected, however early in the series. Connor and Leon played together for the most part and they weren’t dominant in the important final games. The Depth Forwards were the difference, as coach Knob was running all their lines. The big stats that are flooring to me, the Edmonton Oilers forwards without Connor and/or Leon on the ice scored 14 goals in the entire run last year and have only scored double digits in 2 previous runs. This year, the depth has scored 9 goals…in 6 games. For the first time, that group has a POSITIVE goal differential, something they have failed to do in every run prior. Evander Kane and Trent Frederic were amazing coming off injury. Mattias Janmark is getting confused for Connor McDavid at times. Defensively, the Oilers were bad early. So many mistakes and they didn’t look cohesive. That could be due to this team not playing together for like a month or so. The biggest surprise was John Klingberg. His career was over by my expectation, and he turned into the Klingberg of old. He was a horse. Jake Walman leads the D in +/- in the playoffs, a huge shining star. Bouchard…man you take what you can. The duality of Evan Bouchard. He’s incredible at key times but you pay for it at times. They did all of this without their best all-around D in Mattias Ekholm. Goaltending was quite the story. Stu was so bad. In came Calvin Pickard in Game 3 and win 4 straight games. He wasn’t perfect but was good enough to get through and his story has been amazing. The career AHL goalie is having a chance to do something any other goalie would dream of doing. Thank you Calvy.
This is a rematch of Round 2 in 2023. The Knights took care of the Oilers in Game 6. The goaltending matchup will be interesting, but it will come down to who can show their depth. Connor and Leon will need help this time around. No passengers allowed this time. I think the Knights looked exposed at times, but they found a way. They are so deep and are so strong. They have a better team on paper in some cases. Jack Eichel is a horse and that alone will force the Oilers to step up all together. However, for the first time this season, in that effort to come back, I have so much faith in the Oilers. The unknowns to me showed up in ways I never every expected. They will need to do this without Mattias Ekholm, but the D now showed their depth. The depth forwards are stepping up in ways I never imagined they could. The Oilers might be deeper this year than last year…something I can’t believe I am saying. The Oilers will be hungry to take this team down, it is the team that put them on the trajectory to winning the Stanley Cup. Something clicked in Game 4, and I think that will continue. The Oilers are going to show the world just who they are, just like they showed me who they were this past series. I am going aggressive. Oilers in 5.